Conceding Democracy

Democrats continue to under-invest in many winnable GOP-held districts.

Our updated analysis of start-of-Q2 campaign finance reports demonstrates that Democrats are continuing to give democracy-undermining Republicans a free pass in some of the most winnable congressional districts in the country.

In our Q1 analysis, we found that 16 (or 76%) of the 21 newly-drawn districts where Trump received 50-54% of the vote in 2020 lacked a Democratic challenger with more than $100,000 in cash on hand.

Months later, little had improved: by the start of Q2, no Democratic candidate had more than $90,000 in cash on hand in 15 of these 16 neglected districts.

These districts are important because savvy Democrats (such as Rep. Jared Golden of Maine) have proven them winnable by appealing to center-right swing voters and independents.

But we can’t win if we don’t invest. If Democrats are going to save democracy, they’ll need to make stronger investments in candidate recruitment and support in these flippable Republican-held districts.

Democrats are also conceding open seats, including some that lean blue.

In the aftermath of redistricting, there are now 11 competitive open seats where Trump received between 45-54% of the vote share in 2020. As of the start of Q2, Republicans had out-raised Democrats in each one of those districts.

More concerning, Republicans began Q2 with more cash on hand than their Democratic opponents in every district where Trump got less than 50% of the vote.

These are districts like PA-17, where Trump received 56.5% of the vote in 2020. The leading Democratic candidate in the district began the quarter with just $157,000 in cash on hand while his Republican opponent had $615,000.

Democrats can’t win if they don’t compete.