Conceding Democracy

Democrats continue to concede democracy in winnable GOP-held districts.

Our updated analysis demonstrates that Democrats are funneling millions of dollars into unwinnable races against high-profile MAGA incumbents while continuing to give other democracy-undermining Republicans a free pass in some of the most winnable seats in the country.

For example, Marcus Flowers has raised more than $4.6 million for his campaign against Marjorie Taylor Greene in GA-14, despite the fact that the district voted for Trump in 2020 at a higher rate (68.1%) than the very Republican states of Idaho (63.9%), Mississippi (57.6%), and Nebraska (58.5%). In other words, there’s no Democratic pathway to victory in Greene’s district.

Meanwhile, Democrats neglect to compete seriously in far more winnable districts that could decide which party controls Congress for the next two years.

We identified 21 newly-drawn Republican-held districts where Trump received between 50% to 54% of the vote in 2020. These are districts that some Democrats (such as Rep. Jared Golden of ME-02) have proven are winnable by appealing to center-right swing voters and independents. In a majority of those districts — 16 out of 21 (or 76%) — no Democratic challenger entered 2022 with more than $100,000 cash on hand. By contrast, Marcus Flowers began the year with more than $1.5 million on hand.

Included among the 16 neglected yet winnable congressional seats are those held by Lauren Boebert (CO-03), Jeff Van Drew (NJ-02), and Doug Lamborn (CO-05). Each of these Republicans undermined our democracy by voting against the certification of the 2020 electoral college results in the immediate aftermath of the Jan. 6th Capitol riot.

As demonstrated in the following chart, Democratic donors are not allocating their resources efficiently, choosing to fund long-shot campaigns against MAGA torchbearers like Greene over significantly more winnable challenges to equally problematic Republicans like Boebert, Van Drew, and Lamborn.

In 2021, Marcus Flowers raised more than twice as much money as all of the leading Democratic challengers combined in the 16 neglected yet winnable congressional seats.

Two of the neglected districts lacked a Democratic challenger outright, while three had Democratic challengers who started 2022 with nothing raised.

The new maps are fairer but include fewer competitive districts.

Our findings reflect the growing consensus that the 2022 maps came out fairer than expected overall, but with a sizable reduction in competitive swing districts.

As demonstrated in the following graph, Republicans are generally gaining seats within the threshold of districts where Trump performed within 10% of his national average in 2020. It’s important to note, for example, that the share of seats where Trump won with 50-57% of the vote was reduced from 78 to 51 as a result of redistricting.

The share of competitive districts has declined from 2020 to 2022.

To put democracy on offense this year, Democrats, independents, and concerned conservatives must target winnable Republican-held swing districts (such as Boebert’s CO-03, where Trump only won with 52.9% of the vote) instead of red strongholds like Marjorie Taylor Greene’s GA-14.

Without strong investment in flipping these districts, the party remains at serious risk of conceding democracy to Donald Trump’s radicalized GOP.