Democracy Conceded
Over the course of the 2022 cycle, WelcomePAC’s quarterly Conceding Democracy reports highlighted 21 flippable red districts where Democrats were at risk of conceding races to Republicans by not fielding a credible challenge.
These seats were generally rated as “Safe Republican” by the ratings agencies, but some Democratic candidates proved them wrong.
With the 2022 cycle now complete, how did Democrats do in those 21 districts?
As it turns out, most were eventually conceded to democracy-undermining Republicans. But in four of the districts, the story is different — and shows how investment in these undervalued races could have held the House majority for Democrats.
In 17 of these undervalued districts, Democrats lost without putting up a fight.
Candidates were funded at less than $1 million across the entire 2022 cycle, and often less than $200,000.
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Wisconsin's 1st (WI-01)
GOP Incumbent: Bryan Steil
Trump Vote Share: 50.1%
Democrat Raised: $838,417 -
Ohio's 10th (OH-10)
GOP Incumbent: Michael Turner
Trump Vote Share: 50.9%
Democrat Raised: $44,622 -
Florida's 15th (FL-15)
GOP Candidate: Laurel Lee
Trump Vote Share: 50.9%
Democrat Raised: $825,712 -
Michigan's 4th (MI-04)
GOP Incumbent: Bill Huizenga
Trump Vote Share: 51%
Democrat Raised: $37,258 -
Pennsylvania's 10th (PA-10)
GOP Incumbent: Scott Perry
Trump Vote Share: 51.3%
Democrat Raised: $412,734 -
New Jersey's 2nd (NJ-02)
GOP Incumbent: Jeff Van Drew
Trump Vote Share: 51.9%
Democrat Raised: $502,345 -
Virginia's 1st (VA-01)
GOP Incumbent: Rob Wittman
Trump Vote Share: 52.4%
Democrat Raised: $314,866 -
Florida's 4th (FL-04)
GOP Candidate: Aaron Bean
Trump Vote Share: 52.6%
Democrat Raised: $10,440 -
Ohio's 15th (OH-15)
GOP Incumbent: Mike Carey
Trump Vote Share: 52.70%
Democrat Raised: $40,186 -
Florida's 28th (FL-28)
GOP Incumbent: Carlos Gimenez
Trump Vote Share: 52.8%
Democrat Raised: $124,784 -
Texas’ 23rd (TX-23)
GOP Incumbent: Tony Gonzales
Trump Vote Share: 53%
Democrat Raised: $659,338 -
Washington's 5th (WA-05)
GOP Incumbent: Cathy McMorris Rodgers
Trump Vote Share: 53.1%
Democrat Raised: $377,499 -
Colorado's 5th (CO-05)
GOP Incumbent: Doug Lamborn
Trump Vote Share: 53.2%
Democrat Raised: $26,396 -
North Carolina's 9th (NC-09)
GOP Incumbent: Richard Hudson
Trump Vote Share: 53.2%
Democrat Raised: $129,514 -
California's 23rd (CA-23)
GOP Incumbent: Jay Obernolte
Trump Vote Share: 53.7%
Democrat Raised: $954,473 -
Florida's 16th (FL-16)
GOP Incumbent: Vern Buchanan
Trump Vote Share: 53.8%
Democrat Raised: $21,801 -
Ohio's 7th (OH-07)
GOP Candidate: Max Miller
Trump Vote Share: 54%
Democrat Raised: $276,778
But Democrats were competitive in the seats where they did put up a fight.
In 4 of the 21 undervalued GOP-held seats we highlighted, Democrats were able to raise significant amounts of money (more than $2.5 million per seat) and mount serious challenges against democracy-undermining MAGA Republicans.
Three of those four were highly competitive. One seat flipped, another was so close it went to a recount, and one was rated the third-highest overperformance of any Democratic challenger.
During its inaugural cycle, WelcomePAC made investments in two of these districts (CA-41 and CO-03).
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California's 41st (CA-41)
Third-highest overperformance of any Democratic challenger in 2022.
GOP Incumbent: Ken Calvert
Dem Challenger: Will Rollins
Trump Vote Share: 49.7%
Democrat Raised: $3,779,147 -
Washington's 3rd (WA-03)
Democrats flipped this seat.
GOP Candidate: Joe Kent
Dem Challenger: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
Trump Vote Share: 50.5%
Democrat Raised: $3,868,027 -
Colorado's 3rd (CO-03)
Democrats came within 546 votes of flipping.
GOP Candidate: Lauren Boebert
Dem Challenger: Adam Frisch
Trump Vote Share: 52.9%
Democrat Raised: $6,693,964 -
Minnesota's 1st (MN-01)
Democrats lost after mounting challenge.
GOP Incumbent: Brad Finstad
Dem Challenger: Jeff Ettinger
Trump Vote Share: 53.4%
Democrat Raised: $2,586,412
About Conceding Democracy and WelcomePAC
Described by the New York Times as a “new Democratic-aligned outfit that applies insurgent tactics to support center-left candidates in swing districts,” WelcomePAC helps grow a big-tent Democratic Party by recruiting and supporting mainstream Democratic challengers in winnable but overlooked Republican-held districts and states.
WelcomePAC’s quarterly “Conceding Democracy” launched in 2021 to identify opportunities for Democrats to compete in such districts across the country.
WelcomePAC partners are currently identifying which flippable but ignored districts are ripe for investment in the 2024 cycle.
