Q4 2022
Conceding Democracy
Democrats must invest in flipping winnable GOP-held districts to save democracy from Donald Trump’s radicalized Republican Party. As the midterms approach, how many beatable Republicans are getting a free pass?
Beatable Republicans are on the brink of getting a free pass in 2022.
WelcomePAC’s analysis of October campaign finance reports, combined with 2020 presidential vote share, shows Democrats are giving anti-democracy Republican incumbents a free pass in at least eight potentially competitive congressional districts.
In 8 of the 29 GOP-held districts where Trump received 50-54% of the vote in 2020, Democratic nominees had raised less than $100,000 across the entire cycle.
-
OH-10:
Trump Vote Share: 50.9%
Incumbent: Michael Turner (R)
Democrat Total Raised: $38,309
MI-4:
Trump Vote Share: 51%
Incumbent: Bill Huizenga (R)
Democrat Total Raised: $27,766
CO-5
Trump Vote Share: 53.2%
Incumbent: Doug Lamborn (R)
Democrat Total Raised: $18,614
FL-16
Trump Vote Share: 53.8%
Incumbent: Vern Buchanan (R)
Democrat Total Raised: $14,163
FL-28
Trump Vote Share: 52.8%
Incumbent: Carlos Gimenez (R)
Democrat Total Raised: $94,510
FL-4
Trump Vote Share: 52.6%
Incumbent: OPEN
Democrat Total Raised: $60,104
NC-9
Trump Vote Share: 53.2%
Incumbent: Richard Hudson (R)
Democrat Total Raised: $88,499
OH-15
Trump Vote Share: 52.7%
Incumbent: Mike Carey (R)
Democrat Total Raised: $12,631
These include districts held by democracy-undermining Republicans such as Bill Huizenga (MI-04), who signed onto the failed Texas amicus brief to overturn the 2020 presidential election, Michael Turner (OH-10), who voted against the formation of the Jan. 6th Commission, and Doug Lamborn (CO-05), who objected to the certification of the 2020 electoral college results.
Huizenga, Turner, and Lamborn’s Democratic challengers each kicked off Q4 having raised less than $40,000 in the 2022 cycle — effectively giving these beatable Trumpists a free pass back to DC.
In many more districts, Democratic challengers have raised more than $100,000 but not nearly enough to give voters a real choice.
Democrats are giving a free pass to beatable Republicans who undermined our democracy
-
OH-10: Michael Turner
Voted against the Jan. 6th Commission
Trump Vote Share: 50.6%
Incumbent Raised: $1,358,907
Democrat Raised: $38,309
-
MI-04: Bill Huizenga
Signed onto TX amicus brief that attempted to overturn 2020 election
Trump 2020 Vote Share: 51%
Incumbent Raised: $2,510,700
Democrat Raised: $27,766
-
CO-05: Doug Lamborn
Objected to certification of 2020 electoral college votes
Trump 2020 Vote Share: 51.3%
Incumbent Raised: $465,226
Democrat Raised: $18,614
Just how inefficient is the Democratic marketplace?
AOC spent more this cycle on merchandise than the combined fundraising of 12 Democratic nominees challenging beatable GOP incumbents.
The inefficient business of politics means famous candidates in safe blue districts like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez spend millions on merchandise while Democrats ignore winnable GOP-held districts (where Trump won with 50-54% of the vote share in 2020) that could help hold the House.
-
OH-15
Democrat Total Raised: $12,631
FL-16
Democrat Total Raised: $14,163
CO-5
Democrat Total Raised: $18,614
MI-4
Democrat Total Raised: $27,766
OH-10
Democrat Total Raised: $38,309
FL-4
Democrat Total Raised: $60,104
NC-9
Democrat Total Raised: $88,499
FL-28
Democrat Total Raised: $94,510
OH-7
Democrat Total Raised: $234,634
VA-1:
Democrat Total Raised: $263,043
WA-5:
Democrat Total Raised: $301,100
PA-10
Democrat Total Raised: $307,906
GRAND TOTAL: $1,461,278
Photo Credit: Ståle Grut / NRKbeta (CC BY-SA 2.0, Changes Made to Image)
The share of competitive seats is shrinking. Democrats must compete aggressively for those that remain.
Because the GOP used redistricting to fortify their existing seats, Democrats must compete in the shrinking share of more winnable seats where Trump won with 50-57% (reduced from 78 in 2020 to just 51 in 2022).
Catch our quarterly analysis in the news…
-
“WelcomePAC identified 21 newly-drawn districts where Trump won with 54 percent or less of the vote in 2020. These are seats that some Democrats, such as Rep. Jared Golden, have proven are winnable by appealing to center-right voters. In the majority of those districts—16 of 21—no Democratic challenger entered 2022 with more than $100,000 cash on hand.”
-
“‘We get so caught up on the super villains that we don't focus on the villains,’ said Lauren Harper, the co-founder of Welcome PAC, a group that has tracked this pattern and works to expand the reach of the Democratic Party.”
-
“Lauren Harper, a co-founder of the Welcome PAC, an organization that promotes a ‘big-tent’ Democratic Party, said Democrats should train resources on competitive races. ‘We can’t just focus our energy on the people who are driving us bananas,’ she said. ‘It’s a matter of us not using our money as wisely as we could.’”
Read our original report
Read the original report from November 2021