Q3 2022

Conceding Democracy

Democrats must invest in flipping winnable GOP-held districts to save democracy from Donald Trump’s radicalized Republican Party. With redistricting complete nationwide and the midterms fast approaching, how are they doing?

 

Democrats are under-funding potentially winnable Republican-held districts.

Our analysis of start-of-Q3 campaign finance reports combined with 2020 Trump vote share data demonstrates that Democrats are continuing to give anti-democracy Republicans a free pass in a number of potentially competitive newly-drawn congressional districts across the country.

Of 7 GOP-held districts where Trump received 50-51% in 2020, Democratic candidates started Q3 with less than $200,000 in 5 of them.

These include districts held by democracy-undermining Republicans such as Bill Huizenga (MI-04), who signed onto the failed Texas amicus brief to overturn the 2020 presidential election, and Michael Turner (OH-10), who voted against the formation of the Jan. 6th Commission.

Both Huizenga and Turner’s Democratic challengers kicked off Q3 with less than $6,000 in cash on hand — effectively giving these incumbents a free pass.

  • Under-funded districts (<$200,000 in Democrat cash on hand):

    • WI-01

      • Incumbent: Rep. Bryan Steil (R)

      • Trump Vote Share: 50.1%

      • Democrat Cash on Hand: $189,771

    • WA-03

      • Incumbent: Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)

      • Trump Vote Share: 50.5%

      • Democrat Cash on Hand: $102,027

    • FL-15

      • Incumbent: Open

      • Trump Vote Share: 50.9%

      • Democrat Cash on Hand: $133,579

    • OH-10

      • Incumbent: Rep. Michael Turner (R)

      • Trump Vote Share: 50.9%

      • Democrat Cash on Hand: $5,368

    • MI-04

      • Incumbent: Rep. Bill Huizenga (R)

      • Trump Vote Share: 51%

      • Democrat Cash on Hand: $1,987

    Funded districts (>$200,000 in Democrat cash on hand):

    • NY-02

      • Incumbent: Andrew Garbarino (R)

      • Trump Vote Share: 50.1%

      • Democrat Cash on Hand: $307,867

    • IA-01

      • Incumbent: Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)

      • Trump Vote Share: 50.4%

      • Democrat Cash on Hand: $1,269,296

The lack of investment extends further: Democratic candidates in 18 of 29 GOP-held districts where Trump won with 50-54% of the vote started Q3 with less than $100,000 in cash on hand.

Slightly red districts are important because savvy Democrats (such as Rep. Jared Golden of Maine) have proven them winnable by building independent brands that appeal to center-right swing voters and independents.

But we can’t win if we don’t invest. If Democrats are going to save democracy, they’ll need to make stronger and earlier investments in candidate recruitment and support in these flippable Republican-held districts.

Democrats began Q3 with minimal cash on hand in winnable districts held by democracy-undermining Republicans.

  • OH-10: Michael Turner

    Voted against the Jan. 6th Commission

    Trump Vote Share: 50.6%

    Democrat Cash on Hand: $5,368

  • MI-04: Bill Huizenga

    Signed onto TX amicus brief that attempted to overturn 2020 election

    Trump 2020 Vote Share: 51%

    Democrat Cash on Hand: $1,987

  • PA-10: Scott Perry

    Objected to certification of 2020 electoral college votes

    Trump 2020 Vote Share: 51.3%

    Democrat Cash on Hand: $55,983

The share of competitive seats is shrinking. Democrats must compete aggressively for those that remain.

Republicans are generally gaining seats in the threshold of districts where Trump performed within 10% of his national average in 2020. Because the GOP used redistricting to fortify their existing seats, Democrats must compete in the shrinking share of more winnable seats where Trump won with 50-57% (reduced from 78 in 2020 to 51 in 2022).

Catch our quarterly analysis in the news…

  • “WelcomePAC identified 21 newly-drawn districts where Trump won with 54 percent or less of the vote in 2020. These are seats that some Democrats, such as Rep. Jared Golden, have proven are winnable by appealing to center-right voters. In the majority of those districts—16 of 21—no Democratic challenger entered 2022 with more than $100,000 cash on hand.”

    Read More

  • “‘We get so caught up on the super villains that we don't focus on the villains,’ said Lauren Harper, the co-founder of Welcome PAC, a group that has tracked this pattern and works to expand the reach of the Democratic Party.”

    Read More

  • “Lauren Harper, a co-founder of the Welcome PAC, an organization that promotes a ‘big-tent’ Democratic Party, said Democrats should train resources on competitive races. ‘We can’t just focus our energy on the people who are driving us bananas,’ she said. ‘It’s a matter of us not using our money as wisely as we could.’”

    Read More

Read our original report

Read the original report from November 2021

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